five, charging pile industry chain
market space: by the end of 2014, the national total built 723 charging stations, 28 thousand charging pile, charging facilities and new energy car ownership ratio is only about 1:4, "electric vehicle charging infrastructure construction plan" introduced in the near future, is expected to 2020 filling station number 12 thousand, charging pile 4 million 500 thousand, space charge infrastructure construction market billion.
market status: charging pile industry chain development is still uncertain, the electric car charging habits of users have not yet been finalized; fast charge for large-scale centralized grid impact is not easy to solve; the low utilization rate of charging facilities, charging service fees charged by difficult to profit;
market development: grid, sinopec and other large state-owned enterprises, beiqi car factory and all kinds of charging facilities construction and operation of enterprises to participate in the competition. currently charging infrastructure is limited, the main profit from the electricity price difference and charging service fees, the profit model of each enterprise is not clear. need charging infrastructure scale, enterprises can acquire more core data, charging facilities "internet plus" port function can be reflected.
1, core components - market space measurement
new energy automotive core components, including battery, motor, electric control three parts, the highest proportion of the cost of the battery car 30%-45% or so, motor control accounted for 20%-25%, vehicle and other parts accounted for 20% of the rest.
from the plate flexibility, the power battery in the cost of the highest proportion of the vehicle, the largest plate space. parts and components according to the market value of the market in 2020 sort: electric core > motor controller > motor >bms>pack
2, the core components - power battery
market space: power battery is the core components of new energy vehicles, directly determine the performance of the vehicle. in 2014 china's battery demand is about 3gwh, to 2020, with the volume of new energy vehicles, power battery demand will rise to about 37gwh, according to the estimation of the existing battery price, the power lithium battery market size of nearly 100 billion yuan, the largest space in all parts.
technical route: national innovation project on the energy density of battery requirements continue to increase, from three yuan to lithium iron phosphate materials have been identified, the factory switched rapidly, is expected this year, domestic engineering lithium lithium battery power battery three yuan accounted for the total proportion of 20%, next year will rise to 50%, and gradually become the mainstream line beyond lithium iron phosphate;
relationship between supply and demand: according to our calculations, the 2015 planning capacity can not be fully released, the whole power lithium battery market is still in short supply situation. and by 2016, the incomplete statistics planning production capacity will reach 40gwh, with the production capacity is not only released, the power supply and demand of lithium battery supply and demand may be reversed, differentiated significantly, causing the industry reshuffle.
competition pattern: judging from the 2014 data, aesc, lg and byd occupy the top three global shipments, byd, china xuan, the power of god, etc. the air lithium shipments in the domestic leading enterprises. foreign battery factory has a close relationship with equity cooperation and domestic oems, in addition to byd self occupied, matching relationship between battery factory and vehicle companies are still scattered. on the other hand, the domestic battery performance in japan and south korea enterprises obvious gap between the samsung sdi and lg chemical in the domestic new plant will be put into operation next year, will have an impact on the domestic battery business, compressed living space, and the relationship between supply and demand will usher in a reversal, the domestic battery industry reshuffle is inevitable.
who can win: according to the competition, winning enterprises must have the following characteristics: advanced equipment, high level of automation; the quality control level of the leading, to avoid systemic risk; technology development level of excellence, and constantly develop new products; production capacity sufficient to meet the rapid development of new energy vehicles demand; no investment burden, new capacity with experience technical personnel greater likelihood of success;
3, parts and components - electrical control
market space: new energy vehicle motor and motor controller is the core components of new energy vehicles. vehicle volume will boost the development of the industry, is expected to 2020, the new energy automotive electrical market space will reach 40 billion yuan.
competition: domestic market participants are divided into three categories:
1) motor manufacturers in other areas of traditional transition boundary;
2) from the beginning of the establishment of new energy vehicles for motor control of the enterprise;
3) with the traditional vehicle and parts production capacity of enterprises; from the technical level, the domestic motor has little difference with the international the level of most oem cooperation with domestic enterprises, the future market space is gradually rising, does not exclude foreign enterprises to participate in the competition, but the impact will be less than the battery industry.
future development: the main market pattern has been formed, the new investment is difficult to seize the high ground, the transformation in the stock industry; through mergers and acquisitions, alliances, alliance formation has advantages in capital and technology market advantage will build a strong moat.
4, the core components - electric air conditioning
market space: electric air conditioning is the highest energy consumption of new energy vehicles in addition to motor vehicle parts and accessories, the continued line mileage has about 1/4~1/3. according to large and medium-sized passenger car 60 thousand yuan / sets, 5000 yuan / sets of passenger car price estimates, to 2020 the market space of the electric air conditioning industry will reach 16 billion yuan. bus air conditioning market is currently dominated by a large passenger car market growth.
market structure: large and medium passenger car air conditioning market concentration is higher, the market is relatively dispersed passenger car. bus air conditioning sales model directly to the bus, the motor point based, customer stickiness is higher, the level of gross margin as high as 40%, the domestic market has been songz shares, hunan huaqiang guangzhou and divided up into lean, it is difficult to get the order. passenger car air conditioner market in standard mode, intense market competition, relatively dispersed, the profit level is low, at present, foreign companies still have obvious advantages.
future development: bus air conditioning market has formed a major pattern, leading enterprises, strong constant strong situation will continue. passenger car air conditioning market has not yet reshuffle, the industry needs to be further integrated, with technology and customer resource advantages of enterprises through the powerful combination can dominate.
six, lithium battery manufacturing -- lithium equipment
market space: lithium battery equipment according to lithium ion production process can be divided into front-end and back-end equipment, in the end, the precision of equipment and automation level directly affects the efficiency and consistency of lithium battery. power lithium battery in 2020 the total demand will reach 37gwh, is more than ten times in 2014, power lithium battery capacity expansion directly stimulating the demand for equipment;
the coexistence of periodicity and growth: the demand for manufacturing equipment comes from the expansion of downstream capacity, which usually has obvious cyclical characteristics. according to estimates, in 2016 the power battery supply and demand could be reversed, 2015 will be the high growth rate of lithium battery equipment. lithium battery equipment of high low-end market differentiation is obvious, and the leading battery equipment leading to bind more tightly. after the end of the current round of large-scale expansion of the tide, the high-end market is still able to enjoy steady growth brought about by growth.
market structure: the low end of the market and the coexistence of high-end market. the low-end market of small scale, single product, poor applicability, intense competition, the profit rate is low; the technical level of the high-end market enterprises, non standardized product customization, customer stickiness is high, the profit is higher. at present, the domestic lithium battery equipment market is still fragmented, only a few enterprises can enter the high-end market. low end of the market mainly in the domestic low price equipment based, high-end market is facing the extrusion of japan and south korea advanced equipment.
future judgment: at present, the gap between the level of equipment is still obvious, only leading enterprises to enter the large customer supply chain, enjoy the industry's high growth benefits. at the same time, the degree of standardization of lithium equipment low, the need for customized services according to customer demand, customer stickiness is high. the supply chain can enter byd, atl and other well-known enterprises of the domestic enterprise battery scarce, more easily form a snowball effect, to attract more customers to seek cooperation, the most optimistic about the specialization of domestic leading enterprises.
seven, upstream raw material - cathode material
market space: positive electrode material in the cost of electricity accounted for the largest, close to 40%. according to our forecast, in 2013 the demand for 96 thousand tons, while 2020 is 5.3 times in 2013, compound annual growth rate reached 27.2%. from supply and demand perspective, the balance of supply and demand in 2015, but the demand for high-end production capacity, if not for expansion, the beginning of 2016, there will be insufficient capacity, the current domestic enterprises have begun to expand;
the international market competition pattern: the cathode material is mainly in japan and south korea and the current domestic competition in a situation of tripartite confrontation, more dispersed, provide lithium iron phosphate cathode materials for most enterprises, can provide the vehicle power lithium battery materials and three yuan by the vehicle manufacturer enterprise certification is very limited, when the leading position in the high-end technology field has three yuan of cathode materials the basic establishment;
future development: due to domestic enterprises of raw materials and production cost advantages, our enterprises in the future will choose to build a factory, pulling the industry elasticity, and cathode material industry will face the global integration, global competition.
1, upstream raw materials - negative materials
market space: according to our statistics and forecasts, 2013 global demand for anode materials of nearly 50 thousand tons, 2020 will be 5 times that of 2013, compound growth rate of 24.2%; the global anode materials for severe overcapacity, demand capacity is 2 times in 2013. supply and demand perspective, the global anode material production capacity is a serious surplus, but there is a clear differentiation within the enterprise, the supply of high end production capacity, with the domestic production capacity is expected to increase, the product price will be slightly lower;
competition pattern: cathode material of high concentrated market, mainly from japan and chinese, two market share accounted for more than 95% of the world, and is still on the rise; market structure from japan to china industrial transfer; domestic industry reshuffle gradually completed, the market share of beiterui leading enterprises such as rising.
future development: materials, cathode materials of global demand is mainly natural graphite and artificial graphite, taken together accounted for more than 90% market share, which occupy more than 50% of natural graphite, artificial graphite is rising, instead of natural graphite was evident;
2, upstream raw materials - electrolyte
domestic production process to accelerate the expansion of production capacity led to a significant decline in the price of six lithium fluoride lithium lithium phosphate due to high production technology requirements before the market has been monopolized by japan and south korea enterprises, long-term prices remain high. in recent years, with the development of china's relevant enterprises to overcome the key technologies of the domestic process gradually accelerated, which led to the decline in the price of products. on the other hand, the large-scale production capacity expansion of six lithium fluoride phosphate manufacturers is one of the important reasons leading to the decline of product prices.
to improve the structure of supply and demand, prices fell further limited space: we believe that in the future with six fluorine lithium phosphate production capacity expansion to slow down the pace, with the industry average cost level, product prices fell further space is very limited. according to our statistics and forecasts, in 2013 the demand for lithium fluoride 7 thousand and 800 six tons, in 2020 will be 4.6 times in 2013, compound annual growth rate of 24.2%. according to the current global main six fluorine lithium phosphate manufacturers announced the expansion of production planning estimates, is expected to total production capacity of 20 thousand tons, in 2016 after the situation will appear in short supply.
3, the upstream raw material - electrolyte
the electrolyte pattern of the market share of japan's declining, a situation of tripartite confrontation, china and south korea, the share increased steadily, chinese enterprises adopt the development strategy of "price change" to expand market share, while the core raw materials six fluorine lithium phosphate localization is significantly improved, the manufacturing cost is reduced;
from the supply and demand perspective, the current capacity can still meet the demand, will appear after 2016 in short supply, and six production to accelerate the process and capacity expansion led to six fluorine lithium phosphate prices, with the decrease of the gap between supply and demand, the price decline in the limited space of electrolyte;
electrolyte for heavy industry chain industry, customer certification for a long time, stable and high quality customer resources is very important. with the development of the industry and mergers and acquisitions, the industry will have a clear differentiation, the domestic market share will be concentrated in the hands of a small number of leading enterprises;
4, the upstream raw material - the diaphragm
global diaphragm market by japan, the united states a small number of corporate control market, the development of south korea, china manufacturers rise, the market share increased steadily;
from the supply and demand relations, the current global diaphragm but the main supply of small pile up in excess of requirement, the relative lack of power lithium battery separator, the existing production capacity expansion plans need to tilt the battery diaphragm, or after 2016 may be insufficient supply;
the production structure of domestic diaphragm industry is not balanced, low capacity double diaphragm dry processes corresponding to the serious excess, insufficient supply of high-end enterprise, the actual production capacity is very poor and really have the core competitiveness of the company to talent shows itself;
eight, the upstream resources of cobalt: the full benefit of the positive electrode material
cobalt containing materials accounted for nearly 70% of the market share of cathode materials. the cathode material is the main cost of lithium batteries, accounted for 33%, cobalt containing cathode materials including lithium cobalt oxide, lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide, lithium nickel cobalt aluminum cathode materials, together accounted for 70% market share.
global co consumption of the most important areas of battery materials, accounting for 38%. cobalt consumption mainly includes battery materials, high temperature alloys, industrial materials, ceramic glaze and catalyst, in the rapid development of new energy vehicles driven by the price of cobalt will fully benefit from the cathode material volume.
1, the upstream resources demand driven the rapid growth of cobalt
global co based cathode material production of high-speed growth, in 2014 the growth rate of up to 60.5%. among them, the production of cobalt acid lithium and cobalt based three yuan materials increased rapidly, especially in the production of three yuan of cobalt based materials has risen to 48 thousand tons from 17 thousand tons in 2010.
while the demand for cobalt based superalloy will benefit from the application of aerospace. high temperature alloy is an important metal material for the manufacture of modern aero engines, space rocket engines and industrial gas turbine engines. with the future of china's own aviation engine volume, cobalt based high temperature alloy demand will maintain a high growth.
2, the upstream resources of cobalt supply: wheel drive rapid growth
global cobalt concentrate supply concentration is high, and the output growth rate stable. a few separate cobalt minerals, mostly associated and cobalt content is low and the reserves of the top 5 countries together accounted for more than 80%, which leads to higher concentration of cobalt concentrate output, and steady growth. global production of cobalt concentrate in 2014 year-on-year growth of only 9.3%, and the congo (drc) production accounted for 47%.
global refining cobalt production growth rate is relatively stable. 2014 global cobalt production growth rate of only 5.5.%.
3, the upper reaches of the lithium battery level lithium carbonate: lithium demand for the better
lithium products according to the different raw materials can be divided into ore lithium extraction (35%) and brine lithium extraction (65%) two kinds of process routes. lithium ore giant tallison (tian qi li industry holding 51%) by lithium ore, ore production accounted for about 70% of world's total output of lithium; three of the world's largest lithium resources giant sqm, fmc, rockwood are the lithium, the total world output accounted for about 80% of the total output of saline lake lithium.
global demand for lithium resources is growing steadily, in 2014 2003, lithium resources global demand growth rate of about 7%, lithium battery lithium accounted for 41% of consumption, and increasing the proportion of power lithium battery, lithium battery has risen to 15%, more than 6% of all lithium demand.
4, the upper reaches of the battery level lithium carbonate: lithium supply contraction
lithium carbonate production capacity in 2015 increased significantly after pushing. this mainly includes 20 thousand tons of rockwood technical transformation, the expansion of australia's orocobre 17 thousand and 500 tons, 20 thousand tons of lithium industry in canada. the theory of incremental 2015 is about 60 thousand tons, but the real production should be in the second half of this year, total production to 2016 after the yield contribution is not significant.
this year's el nino year, chile, 80 years of serious flooding, increase the supply shock concerns. the heavy rainfall in the previous 80 years in northern chile atacama desert area, the atacama area is sqm chile's 48 thousand tons of production capacity, the saline lake of american rockwood company 30 thousand tons (20 thousand tons expansion) gathering capacity (about 50% overall global supply of lithium, and (sqm) global lithium supply accounted for about 30% of the subordinate li) factory production has been suspended, the tight supply of lithium.
5, upstream resources of neodymium iron boron: demand for the better, the strong heng qiang
ndfeb magnetic material is a metal alloy, such as praseodymium neodymium ferroboron, magnetic energy product, high coercive force and energy density. the upper reaches of the neodymium iron boron material is a rare earth producer, which is widely used in information technology, automobile, nuclear magnetic resonance, wind power and other fields.
global production of neodymium iron boron rapid growth, china accounted for 90% of the global total output.
the motor driving the new energy vehicles have a brilliant future. new energy vehicles to electric drive system is the requirement of high torque density, strong control ability, which happens to coincide with the performance of ndfeb permanent magnet synchronous motor, electric vehicles will still be optimal; and the neodymium iron boron cycling is less, the price sensitivity is low, the future will benefit from the volume of new energy vehicles.
automotive eps, micro motor needs in the ascendant, continued to enhance the permeability. eps turn in the operating force and has performance advantages of strong stability, active safety, the permeability is still around 25%, space is still large; auto micro motors with lightweight, intelligent vehicle, will enhance the amount of system.
inverter air conditioner to enhance the proportion of energy consumption, raise the standard will pull ndfeb demand; domestic inverter air conditioner still accounted for less than 60% in the promotion space is still large, and the air conditioning energy consumption standards more than 2 air-conditioning mandatory use of ndfeb;
demand for wind power, the steady growth of electronics: abandoned wind power rationing has improved, vcm demand is relatively stable
rare earth prices are expected to rebound, ndfeb gross profit space is expected to improve, and enjoy the rare stock appreciation income.
heng qiang: one is the strong advantage of enterprises and downstream enterprises, joint research and development, customer stickiness is strong, market and technical barriers continue to increase; the two is to have overseas market patent, high market barriers; three is the financial situation of enterprises, mergers and acquisitions extension ability.